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I am 32 yrs old and make $75,000 in Ohio as an accountant
Section One: Assets and Debt
Retirement Balance: around $35,000 - I have always contributed at some level to my employers’ retirement plans. Used to save less, but have increased over the last 3 years. My current employer matches up to 3% and does a 3% automatic contribution. I contribute 5%.
Equity if you're a homeowner: I bought my house for about $98,000 3 years ago. I have about $85,000 left on my mortgage. I ended up with an FHA mortgage and put down a pretty low down payment (5%). I didn’t have a specific savings goal amount for the down payment, just a savings account I kept dropping money into separate from my emergency fund, I’d say about 6 months out from when I actually bought the house I got serious about saving more toward that purchase. I also had a couple savings bonds from childhood I used toward the purchase.
Savings account balance: $7,000 emergency fund, about $9,000 across 3 other savings accounts designated for home repairs/improvements, emergency pet expenses, and short term savings (vacations, car repairs, etc)
Checking account balance: fluctuates because I pay all bills out of my checking
Credit card debt : I have $400 on a zero interest card. I was supposed to take a trip to the UK in May, which didn’t happen because COVID and since the airline ticket was sitting on that card with zero interest (received refunds for hotels) I have been paying it off a bit at a time out of sadness that I don’t know when I’ll be able to take that trip. Other than that, I pay mostly with a rewards credit card and pay it in full each month
Student loan debt: $0 - finished paying off a little over a year ago. I had around $15-17K mostly for my MBA and a summer abroad program. My undergrad degree was primarily funded by my parents and a generous scholarship
Section Two: Income
Main Job Monthly Take Home: $3,909
Taxes: $1,292
Insurance: $502 - this is a high deductible plan. It’s the cheapest option my employer offers. I’m just as mad about it as you think I am.
HSA: $200
401(k) contribution: $312
Section Three: Expenses
Rent / Mortgage / HOA fees: $800/month - includes property taxes and insurance. Actual amount due is about $750 but I round up
Retirement contribution if you contribute more than what’s as already specified from the income / pre-tax section. Do not double count: I have an IRA I stick about $25/month in
Savings contribution: varies. As mentioned, I have a couple different savings accounts aside from my emergency fund. At each pay period, I dump whatever is in my checking over $500 into them. I usually try to “level up” to the next increment of $250, but if it’s been a spendy month, I’ll just put the whole amount in the short term savings account. Having the different accounts helps me keep track of what I need to save for and the short term account acts as a good buffer
Investment contribution: nothing right now. I have about $900 in a stash account but I’m not actively contributing more to it
Debt payments: Kicking $100/month toward the balance of the zero interest card mentioned above
Donations: I don’t have any regular donations I do, I’ll send $10-20 to causes friends share as they come up. I serve on the board of a non-profit dog rescue which is about 5-10 hrs/week. I also regularly foster dogs for the same organization. vet expenses are paid for but any extras or food I cover.
Electric: $36/month (budgeted so always the same over a 12 month period)
Gas: $55/month (budgeted so always the same over a 12 month period)
Wifi/Cable/Landline: $70/month - WiFi only
Water: $35/month
Sewer: $45/month
Cellphone: $65/month - paid to my dad for the family plan
Subscriptions: Netlfix - $9.71 Hulu - $6.49 Amazon prime - $119/year
Gym membership: $100/month for a crossfit-type gym (currently paused)
Pet expenses: $75/month for daily meds, $38 for insurance (one dog), $110 training - 6 week sessions. I compete in dog sports with my youngest dog - in more normal times, I also have competition expenses anywhere from $0 - $150/month. As with everything, most dog sports are really limited right now, if they are happening at all. I’m trying to be aware of which spaces are holding trials with responsible measures taken (masking, thoughtful flow of traffic, limited entries, etc) and limiting my participation to those spaces.
Car payment / insurance: $430 for insurance every 6 months, $350/month for car payment - minimum amount due is $250 but I’m trying to pay off the car
Regular therapy: $83/session, 1-2 sessions a month.
Totals for the week:
Food + Drink: $60.32
Fun / Entertainment: $0
Home + Health: $80
Clothes + Beauty: $43.73
Transport: $22.26
Other $375.15
Total: $581.46
Day 1 $0 (Sunday)
7:00AM: wake up - make some oatmeal and cold brew. Spend the morning trying to get my personal emails under control. Hang out in the yard for a bit - I have 3 dogs and am fostering 2 puppies right now, so we spend a lot of time just sorta being outside so the puppies can play. Puppies find a weakness in my fence and I do a temp fix with some extra chicken wire I have in my garage
11:00AM: start meal prep for the week ahead. Even tho I work from home right now, I like to put together something otherwise I eat like I'm in high school and I am definitely not in high school. I make some stir fry chicken and veggies and rice. Eat one portion for lunch, put the rest in the fridge for the week.
7:00PM: training class for one of my dogs. We have a weekly group we meet with (expense noted above). This class focuses on competitive obedience, it’s about an hour long. We’re taking precautions with COVID - class size is limited (there’s 3 of us plus the instructor) we have the space divided into individual sections to encourage distance and everyone wears masks
10:00PM: after getting home from class, letting the puppies play some more, I head to bed.
Day2 $80 (Monday)
6:30AM: wake up, take all the dogs out, have coffee and oatmeal while they sniff around the yard. Log into work around 8:00 after taking a quick shower but not washing my hair. I literally have no morning routine/makeup products to list. Since I work from home I wear loose shorts and a t shirt 7 days a week.
11:30AM: work is pretty normal - no meetings this morning so just getting items checked off my task list. Break around 11:30 for lunch. Realize I left my garage door opener in my car...and closed the garage door. Long story, but there is only one way into my garage and I made a dumb but human error. Check my neighborhood facebook group for a recommendation of someone who can help me get into my garage - he’ll be here right after work.
5:30PM: I sign off work and the garage door guy is here. He saws off the key disconnect that I don’t have a key for, installs a new one (and gives me the keys for it!), gets my garage door opener back for me. Quotes me for a new opener ($250) because mine is over 15 yrs old. He suggests not replacing it until I have to, but also not to pay for any repairs on the opener because it’s so old. Charges me $80 for the service plus new key disconnect.
7:30PM: after walking the dogs, I eat some frozen chicken potstickers for dinner. Sit out in the yard with dogs after dinner for a bit and head to bed around 9:30
Day3 $10.29 (Tuesday)
7:00AM: a little slow getting up today, have another oatmeal and coldbrew breakfast out in the yard with the dogs, log on to work at 8:00. After I log in and see any emails that came through, I hop in the shower quickly
10:00AM: a bunch of calls and catching up with my boss and his boss this morning. I have some almonds to snack on and then have my stir fry for lunch around noon, but try to work through lunch today
3:30PM: I have a Physical Therapy appointment. I injured my shoulder a while back and am finally taking care of it. Nothing owed today - I’ll get billed after. Free parking because I was in and out in under an hour
4:30PM: after PT, I go to PetCo on the hunt for a collar for one of the foster puppies. Usually I’d have a spare one that fit, but the puppies were smaller than my random collar collection thought they would be. PetCo doesn’t have the type I want (martingale with a quick release snap) but I grab some canned food for giving my older dogs their medication while I’m there $10.29
8:00PM: worked for an hour or so after I got back from my appointment and errands. Hang out with the dogs in the backyard and drink a seltzer. Made some Cacio e pepe for dinner which I eat while responding to emails for the rescue. After dinner I stick a new batch of cold brew in the fridge for the next couple of mornings and head to bed at about 10:00PM
Day4 $0 (Wednesday)
6:45AM: usual wakeup, take the puppies for a walk, have some more oatmeal and coffee. I am extremely boring with regard to breakfasts. Quick shower again before logging onto work.
10:00AM: last week I ordered a bunch of kodiak cake cups and oatmeals - they come today! Set for breakfasts for now.
5:30PM: Text with my friend about more meal prep ideas for lunches, take the dogs for another walk. I usually walk them in pairs since there are 5 right now and the puppies are still getting used to using leashes.
7:30PM: more cacio e pepe for dinner tonight. This time I mix in some tomatoes as well - not traditional but very good
8:00PM: get a call from someone needing input on a matter for the board of the rescue I volunteer on. We talk for almost an hour. It’s kind of a stressful, weird call and I always worry I say something that could come back to bite me unintentionally. Head to bed around 10:00PM
Day5 $98.30 (Thursday)
7:30AM wake up a little late this morning, have my coffee and oatmeal, log into work by 8:00. I see in my email that one of my dog’s auto-refill for his prescription processed. He’s got a heart condition that’s managed by two different medications. The one that just refilled is $54.57 each month
12:00PM Lunch break with the pups in the yard. I try to take about 30 min lunch/mid day break while I’m working from home. With the puppies I also take a mid morning break and usually another in the afternoon if I have a good break in work so they can stretch their legs and play
6:00PM head to a local park for a quick walk with 3 out of 5 dogs. We do a couple miles and head home
9:00 make dinner while catching up on some of the emails from the rescue - dinner is frozen zucchini spirals with sun dried tomato pesto. Mobile deposit a check I got from Rakuten ($15.54) and buy a couple workout t’s and a pair of shorts from Old Navy ($43.73) before I head to sleep
Day6 $75.79 (Friday)
7:30AM: wake up late again. Scramble to get online by 8:00.
9:00AM: I have a couple calls in a row where I have to listen but no pressure to talk, so I save my breakfast (more cold brew and a kodiak flap jack cup) for this hour. See an email go through that my repeat order on Chewy of dog food goes through. I had also added a collar to it, since I couldn’t find what I wanted at PetCo earlier in the week. $50.79
11:30AM: I finished the last of my stir fry with yesterday’s lunch, I am feeling uninspired by anything in my fridge but really hungry. I order a pizza. $25 with tip.
5:30PM: finished with work for the week! I do some yard work and eat more pizza
9:00PM - head over to a friend’s house. He put up a projector in his backyard so we watch a movie out there and I head back home around 1:00AM and go right to sleep
Day7 $317.08 (Saturday)
8:30 AM: sleep in a bit because I was up a lot later than normal last night. Have some coffee with the dogs in the backyard, do a bit of cleaning - mostly running the vacuum and dusting. I have a robot vacuum that gets run every day during the week but it barely keeps my house from exploding with dog hair, so have to hit it with the real deal at least once a week.
10:00AM - therapy session, from my home. My therapist went with video visits back in March and there’s no end in sight for that. Usually sessions are $83 (noted in expenses) but he informs me that I have a credit on my account and today is covered. No idea how or why, but I’ll take it.
11:00AM: spend the next hour or so catching up on tasks for the rescue - responding to emails, making sure tasks have been followed up on, cleaning up my inbox so I can find things easier. Have lunch of some frozen broccoli and a piece of the pizza from yesterday.
1:00PM: head to a local outdoors shop because I saw a post on instagram that they have some deeply discounted backpacks. I have been researching for the last month or so what would be best for my needs. I end up buying a non-discounted pack, after a thorough fitting and trying a couple different models on. Slightly more than I planned on spending, but it’s a local shop and the pack should last for years $245.47
2:00PM: stop for gas while I am out ($22.26) and then head to Aldi for groceries for the week (peanutbutter, lettuce, spices, frozen corn and butternut squash, popcorn, snack bars, la croix, diet coke, bananas, chili peppers, yogurt, cheese sticks and an impulse- buy mum $35.32). Stop at Starbucks after and get a cold brew ($4.25, paid with money loaded on my app previously) on my way home I realize I have no planter for said mum, so I have to order one once I get home ($14.03)
6:00PM: head back out with a couple of the dogs for another park visit. We do another couple miles, come back home where I eat the rest of the pizza and go to bed around 10:30PM
Reflection Pretty typical week, aside from the backpack purchase Saturday and garage fix on Monday. I try to have one or two no spend days during the work week, especially now that I'm working from home and there is less opportunity to stop for things on the way home from the office. I did end up returning the backpack - I found a deal online for the same model, last year's color, for $100 less. I felt a bit of guilt with buying from a big retailer instead of the local shop, but $100 difference was too good to pass up.
There are so many gambling strategies out there right now and they would all have you believe that there's is the one that will work and you will never need to work again. If only it were that simple! Being the most gullible person on the planet, I have been sucked in to most of these "systems" and I am sorry to break it to you, but I always log off the online casino with an empty pocket. The most frustrating thing is, I haven't fallen for it once, but several times. Many of the online gambling systems revolve around roulette or blackjack and work on the old Martingale system. That is where every time you lose a bet you double your bet, so that when you eventually win, you win all your money back and then some. I actually believed this could work and have lost over $1000 on this method. I also believe that online casinos are rigged. It is pretty obvious when you are covering most of the table with your bets and the one third you are not betting on doe s not come up for 18 times in a row (that happened to me). There are other systems that use software, such as Roulette sniper and Roulette killer. They both work on the theory that if a certain section of numbers has not come up for a while, it will be due to come up soon. This is not how roulette works. I know, because I lost over $300 with this system. So what about the really expensive systems such as the roulette robots that you take to the casinos to monitor the wheel? Well, I have not had the money to try these (they cost thousands of dollars) but all reviews say they are one big scam. I have been so desperate for a quick fix for my financial problems that I was willing to believe anything. I don't want the same thing to happen to you. Free systems do not work either. The website owners of easyfreeincome and docsmoney make money when you sign up to the casinos through their sites. They actually make money when you lose! Please do not believe their free advice. There are ways to make money online, but online gambling is not one of them.
Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies
This is not mine, the creator of this is u/enderpiet Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried. On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences. So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings. (2020 Update down at the bottom.) If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better. But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please. Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier. Expected return and variance A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet. But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play? Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept. Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time. Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette. Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins. When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance. Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at. Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout. Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets. Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing. Gamblers' Fallacy Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it. Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results. The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same. You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists. This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more. The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino. Betting systems Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails. If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit. Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid. And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager. So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan. Set your limits BEFORE you start playing One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management. Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE. Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing. Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line. But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there. Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back. Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again. Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT. Casino games in GTA Online Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best. 6) Slots Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case. The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines: -high frequency, low payout slots -low frequency, high payout slots In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts. This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going. The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine. At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips. This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing. But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster. In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates. Optimal strategy for slots: There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away. 5) Roulette Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it. In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge. This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play. The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to. The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%. Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return. So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results. Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing. Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette: Stay away. Stay far away. 4) Three Card Poker With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet. Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts. There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that. Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker: For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine. This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%. The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet. So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour. My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can. To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it. This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better. Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge. Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose. 3) Blackjack Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below. However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions. Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino: -The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle. -Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack. -No insurance offered, no surrender. -Dealer stands on soft 17. -Double down on any two cards. -Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed. -Seven-Card Charlie. Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice. But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that. The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace). When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not. But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize. The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it. Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard. Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit. Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules:https://prnt.sc/olct6g You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20. If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment. But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies. Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong. As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop. 2) Virtual Horse Racing Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it. If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can. The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on. Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize. Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning. If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds. Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win. Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each. A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner. It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples. Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%? They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner. So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale. So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players. Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%. This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run. This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge. But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together. In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED. This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple. So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows: -Favorites: EVENS to 5-1 -Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1 -Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1 Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening. The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1. EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%. This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise. A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%, a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time, and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time. The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips. These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results. But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways. But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1. Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%. This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact. So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%, the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time, and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time. When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%! This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips. This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing. Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field. If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb: -Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it. -Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field. -To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips. But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong. It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race. Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side. To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum. I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it". User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato 1) Wheel of Fortune The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play. Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it. With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value. So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time. 2020 Update: As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something. And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide. Cliffs: -Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins. -A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work. -Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there. -Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker. -Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g). -Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite. -Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.
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Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies
Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried. On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences. So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings. (2020 Update down at the bottom.) If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better. But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please. Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier. Expected return and variance A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet. But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play? Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept. Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time. Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette. Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins. When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance. Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at. Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout. Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets. Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing. Gamblers' Fallacy Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it. Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results. The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same. You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists. This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more. The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino. Betting systems Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails. If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit. Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid. And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager. So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan. Set your limits BEFORE you start playing One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management. Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE. Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing. Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line. But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there. Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back. Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again. Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT. Casino games in GTA Online Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best. 6) Slots Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case. The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines: -high frequency, low payout slots -low frequency, high payout slots In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts. This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going. The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine. At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips. This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing. But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster. In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates. Optimal strategy for slots: There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away. 5) Roulette Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it. In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge. This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play. The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to. The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%. Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return. So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results. Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing. Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette: Stay away. Stay far away. 4) Three Card Poker With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet. Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts. There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that. Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker: For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine. This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%. The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet. So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour. My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can. To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it. This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better. Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge. Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose. 3) Blackjack Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below. However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions. Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino: -The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle. -Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack. -No insurance offered, no surrender. -Dealer stands on soft 17. -Double down on any two cards. -Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed. -Seven-Card Charlie. Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice. But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that. The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace). When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not. But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize. The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it. Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard. Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit. Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules: https://prnt.sc/olct6g You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20. If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment. But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies. Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong. As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop. 2) Virtual Horse Racing Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it. If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can. The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on. Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize. Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning. If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds. Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win. Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each. A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner. It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples. Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%? They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner. So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale. So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players. Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%. This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run. This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge. But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together. In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED. This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple. So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows: -Favorites: EVENS to 5-1 -Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1 -Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1 Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening. The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1. EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%. This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise. A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%, a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time, and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time. The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips. These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results. But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways. But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1. Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%. This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact. So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%, the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time, and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time. When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%! This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips. This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing. Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field. If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb: -Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it. -Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field. -To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips. But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong. It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race. Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side. To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum. I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it". User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato 1) Wheel of Fortune The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play. Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it. With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value. So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time. 2020 Update: As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something. And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide. Cliffs: -Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins. -A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work. -Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there. -Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker. -Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g). -Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite. -Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.
Which is the best auto trading robot for forex market?
I would not dare to say that there is any best auto trading robot for Forex Market. There may be in the world, but it probably not for sales nor for the public. If you have been in the forex market for a while, you will naturally become curious about automating your trades when you have a strategy and money management that bring profitability consistently. I am an active signals follower and been in this industry for years thus these are a few tips before choosing a profitable robot in the market. Drawdown It is common that you study drawdown before diving into any EA. As this is the likely losses you will incur in the strategy you are engaging. The certain trading robot drawdown could get as high as 80% which I would not recommend. A safe drawdown would range 10%-20%, while max drawdown would range within 35%-50% depending on your risk appetite. Martingale/Grid This is a strategy which projects a clean curve on every portfolio. The only downside is that the stacked trades one day may backfire and margin call your account in a single day. In my opinion, such a strategy has its pro and con and it would be difficult to even debate if it is suitable for investment since such a strategy is more towards probability game/ gambling with formula. View the Best Forex EAs, the reviews and proven results and select the best FX Expert Advisors for Metatrader MT4 for your needs: https://www.best-forex-robots.com/l/broker-profit/ Read the Reviews Before you settle on a forex robot, check out the reviews. You can assess the credibility of a forex robot by visit forex trading forums. Here, you can ask for advice about the forex robot you like or you can read posts about the robot by other members. Researching carefully can help you understand if a forex robot will be suited to your particular trading style and level of experience. Ask for Back Testing Data Any EA will have the back-testing data for more than 10 years. It would be tested on different pairs to ensure it is profitable on different market condition and best used on which currency pairs. Check out the Live Trading Results Request for live verified results. Usually, you can find real verified results either on myfxbook or FX Blue. Sometime EA developer will provide investor password for you to review their performance on a live account. I will only stick to EA with verified results since this is the only way to ensure profitability. Summary Forex Robot is not a get rich quick solution, always ensure you have set up stable and consistent risk management on every EA to ensure long-lasting profitable trading experience. Forex is already considered as a high-risk product, therefore you should always do your money management properly to avoid over-leveraging.
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Part 3: Jenis Robot - Martingale VS Non Martingale
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